Welcome moviegoers to the box office results where we take a look at the weekend’s opening numbers for films in wide release (1,000 theatres or over) in the USA and to see and compare if our predictions were “right on the money” or if they were “too optimistic”.

Check out our full range of opening weekend predictions for this month.

RIGHT ON THE MONEY (0-5% range)
SO CLOSE (6-20% range)
ALMOST (21-40% range)
TOO OPTIMISTIC (41% + range)


This weekend’s new releases seem to be under expectations, however ‘Baywatch’ took the bigger hit. Opening a day earlier than ‘Pirates 5’, ‘Baywatch’ opened to an estimated $22 million from Thursday-Sunday, and $18.1 million from its usual Friday-Sunday opening. We are including the five-day number below because that’s the basis we predicted as I completely stuffed up and thought ‘Baywatch’ opened on Wednesday, and not the Thursday which the movie opened on, so taking a look at our predictions below, even including Monday grosses, we completely over estimated this action beach comedy. The percentages below are from the 5-day number.

  • Daniel’s Prediction: $50 million (46.8%) TOO OPTIMISTIC
  • Nic’s Prediction: $90 million (70.4%) TOO OPTIMISTIC
  • Opening Weekend: $18.1 million (3-Day), $26.6 million (5-Day)

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

While not the lowest opening for the franchise, it is a tad bit of a worry that ‘Pirates 5’ opened as the second-lowest opening weekend in the franchise with an estimated $62 million for the three-day number. That’s slightly above the first ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ movie ‘The Curse of the Black Pearl’ which opened with $46.6 million back in 2003, however had strong legs and became a massive performer for Disney which led to the second and third films to open with over $100 million. However, ‘Dead Men Tell No Tales’ did open in first place, but with a bit of a decline of interest from 2011’s ‘On Stranger Tides’ opening of $90.2 million.

  • Daniel’s Prediction: $70 million (11.4%) SO CLOSE
  • Nic’s Prediction: $80 million (22.5%) ALMOST
  • Opening Weekend: $62 million

Source: Box Office Mojo